Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 17:37:57 ACUS02 KWNS 091737 SWODY2 SPC AC 091736 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms will be over parts of the central and southern Plains on Monday. Sporadic severe storms are possible over the northern Rockies, parts of the upper Great Lakes region, and over a small portion of the Northeast. ....Much of the Central Plains... Strong instability over much of the Plains will again favor areas of severe storms, mainly from NE into NM/TX during the afternoon and evening. Although upper-level temperatures may be a bit warmer with indications of subsidence, strong heating and MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the northwest flow regime will favor severe hail and wind along the front in NE and into the deeply mixed/heated air over NM/TX. A disturbance rounding the AZ/NM upper high may support a continued severe threat into central TX late. Isolated very large hail cannot be ruled out conditional on proper storm mode over NE and perhaps northwest TX. ....Northern Rockies... Cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Pacific Northwest and into MT as a weak shortwave trough affects the area. The steep lapse rate environment will make the most of the minimal moisture, resulting in 500+ J/kg MUCAPE beneath moderate westerlies aloft, favoring both marginal hail and locally strong gusts. ....Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A surface trough will set up from Nebraska into Upper Michigan during the day, just south of the stronger flow aloft around the Ontario upper low. Heating as well as convergence along the boundary will lead to a broken line of strong to severe storms from the Twin Cities to Lake Superior. The steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will strongly favor hail production, and isolated supercells will be possible. A brief tornado may occur near the boundary. ....Northeast... Cool air aloft with a small ejecting shortwave trough will combine with 65-70 dewpoints and minimal heating to produce areas of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day. This area of precipitation will shift northeastward with time, and the southern periphery could potentially harbor a few stronger cells as they will have access to stronger instability to southwest. That said, instability will be weak, as will shear, though winds will veer with height within the warm advection zone. Any rotation within storms is expected to be weak given aforementioned factors. Otherwise, locally strong wind gusts may occur. ...Jewell.. 07/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .