Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 17:09:15

AWUS01 KWNH 091709
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0677
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Virginia Piedmont & Tidewater...DelMarVa
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091705Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms approaching from the west may
produce rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr.

DISCUSSION...As a primary line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms
emerge off the Blue Ridge, it will enter an environment highly
supportive of Excessive Rainfall rates. Surface observations show
dew points in the low 70s in the central VA Piedmont while there
are in the mid-70s in the VA Tidewater and over the DelMarVa
Peninsula. RAP mesoanalysis shows there is >1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
present throughout the region with >2,000 J/kg in areas
neighboring the Chesapeake Bay. PWATs will also range between
1.8-2.0" this afternoon. Effective bulk shear is also closer to 30
knots, which should help to maintain these storms as they track
east. RAP guidance also showed warm cloud layers 12,000-13,000ft
in depth an low-mid level RH values reaching as high as 90%.

These storms will be progressive and thus should help to limit the
area extent of possible flash flooding. However, portions of
central VA and the central DelMarVa have been rather wet the past
7-14 days. AHPS shows as much as 300% of normal rainfall has
transpired the past 14-days, and some areas with hit with heavy
rainfall as recently as yesterday. Given the combination of the
potential for rainfall rates between 2-3"/hr and some saturated
soils present, flash flooding is possible this afternoon. Poor
drainage areas and more urbanized communities are also prone to
possible flash flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6h_tNLArkePD9HyUFeIJXO8Vxx1XAOzgDJSWOT94kvMCFPY-chjwFUYRfVuU153sg0Hz=
g8pmMecpExx0BjtFqvXqNqY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39107559 39077527 38677497 38247505 37267568=20
            37197634 37327722 37317796 37637820 38237814=20
            38657785 38607696 38827610=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.