Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1474
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 16:55:56

ACUS11 KWNS 091655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091655=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-091800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...northeast Virginia and central Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 091655Z - 091800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures across northeast Virginia and central
Maryland have warmed into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the
low 70s. This has eroded most of the inhibition across the region
where MLCAPE is now 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Weak storms which have formed
along the pre-frontal trough across north-central Virginia will
continue east and are expected to intensify as they interact with
better surface based instability to the east. In addition, some
storms may develop ahead of this line as ascent increases ahead of
the mid-level shortwave trough.=20

Effective shear around 25 to 35 knots will be sufficient for a
multicell storm mode and a threat for damaging wind gusts through
the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
within the next hour.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Q677IBj38mnsBuubOCyjMz34odbhTlFnasM5nJubHQ0HMK-2iQNI8KGUcDTtQnWALsHF4ncS=
1ajZhhpupjHx4Nw6g0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37657790 37947822 38937803 39657771 39477682 39347558
            38767500 38307502 37757536 37587555 37557629 37517661
            37527712 37657790=20


=3D =3D =3D
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