Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 16:33:56 ACUS01 KWNS 091633 SWODY1 SPC AC 091632 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ....SUMMARY... Strong storms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts from the lower Mississippi Valley today into Gulf Coast States, with a risk for damaging wind gusts also accompanying scattered strong storms across the Mid-Atlantic region. ....Mid Atlantic Region... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the central Appalachians. This shortwave is expected to continue east-northeastward throughout the day, interacting with the very moist air mass across the Mid-Atlantic region. Mesoanalysis estimates that MLCAPE is already around 1500 J/kg from eastern PA into NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity. Shear is relatively modest across northern portions of the region, with effective bulk shear around 30 to 35 kt. As a result, a predominantly multicellular storm mode is anticipated, with updraft duration likely limited by the lack of strong shear and storm interactions. Even so, some water-loaded downdrafts appear likely, particularly from now until the early afternoon. Farther south (across VA and into the Carolinas), a cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal trough this morning across western NC. Vertical shear over this area (particularly NC) is a bit stronger and more westerly than areas farther north. This vertical shear will combine with ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy to support the persistence of this line as it moves eastward this morning through the afternoon. Robust updrafts are possible within this line, with the potential to produce damaging gusts. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #466 was recently issued to address this threat. ....Arklatex into Gulf Coast states... Updrafts along the leading edge of the ongoing convective complex have weakened for now. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to re-intensify along a cold front sagging across AR/TN. This activity will spread southeastward across much of northern MS/AL and northwest GA through the evening hours with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, multiple clusters of storms are may form this afternoon ahead of the remnant aforementioned MCS over parts of southern MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This will be in a region of hot/humid boundary-layer air and beneath 25-35 knot westerly mid-level winds. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ....Upper Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible later this afternoon into this evening as a subtle shortwave trough moves through the southern periphery of the cyclone centered over northern Manitoba. A modestly buoyant airmass is anticipated across the region, which will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases may support a few damaging gusts with any of the more robust storms. ...Mosier/Supinie.. 07/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .