Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 16:20:16

AWUS01 KWNH 091620
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-092218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0676
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC...Southern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091618Z - 092218Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates will
be crossing through areas of central and eastern NC, as well as
southern VA over the next several hours. This will include the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area. Some flash flooding will be
possible and especially for the urban corridors.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a band
of strong thunderstorms continuing to gradually expand in coverage
and intensity across areas of west-central to northwest NC. This
activity is being strongly facilitated by the east-northeast
advance of a rather strong mid-level shortwave trough crossing the
central Appalachians.

DPVA associated with this will be crossing and ejecting east of
the Piedmont region over the next several hours and will be
encountering a very moist and unstable airmass characterized by
MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg and PWs reaching as high as
1.8 to 2.0 inches. This should help drive some additional
expansion of convection and with rainfall rates that may approach
or locally exceed 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

The 12Z HREF guidance supports some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals and at least a low-end threat for some 1 and 3-hour FFG
exceedance, and especially across central NC around the
Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area.

There will also be at least a low-end concern for isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding for areas of southern
VA and eastern NC as the convection does tend to organize and
advance off to the east while expanding in coverage.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5xYp-NM2j69h_THqb7ThYIorWcPnn7bp9dBRO3EUCQZ41yV9cggug6NKyXM0j28mJUGR=
J5MmodTYPUXt2icHDuEJYbw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37247768 36927602 35657583 34697712 34567883=20
            34858003 35558040 36757929=20

=3D =3D =3D
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