Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 15:23:56

ACUS11 KWNS 091523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091523=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Central North Carolina and south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091523Z - 091700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will increase across central North
Carolina and southern Virginia by early afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developed along a pre-frontal
trough this morning across western North Carolina. There have been a
few reports of wind damage and measured wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
The environment continues to improve ahead of this activity with
temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
yielding an uncapped airmass according to SPC mesoanalysis.
Therefore, despite 12Z CAM guidance insistence this morning activity
should dissipate, expect it to continue eastward as destabilization
continues with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg by early to
mid-afternoon. Effective shear around 30 to 35 knots will support
multicell storm clusters and potentially some rotating updrafts.
However, a warm/moist thermodynamic profile should limit hail
potential with water loaded-downdrafts as the primary threat.=20
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed shortly to cover the
threat from the ongoing storms and any additional development which
may occur.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-oOYOWFbxxovKtskVETJEDCiE78ohNQY0cOKfo825eZNRwlQ2LgO2RsnGV1j_gTn4N0AlxllI=
DM6hucWOrl-Z0sRJpU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35518122 36058060 36568018 37027921 37097787 36077749
            34857858 34587971 34808083 35518122=20


=3D =3D =3D
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