Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 14:29:23

ACUS11 KWNS 091429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091428=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...far southern New
York...western New Jersey...and the DelMarva

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091428Z - 091600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing threat for wind damage from water-loaded
downbursts by midday.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has advected inland across the
Mid-Atlantic with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A somewhat dense
stratus/stratocumulus deck has accompanied this low-level moisture
advection which is stunting heating across the region. However,
minimal heating is needed with SPC mesoanalysis indicating no
inhibition and MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Some thunderstorms have
already formed along a surface trough in central Pennsylvania. Given
the weak capping, expect widespread thunderstorm by mid-day.
However, this lack of capping will also limit greater
destabilization and thus may mute the severe weather potential,
especially given the weak lapse rates and moist thermodynamic
profile. However, this moist environment (12Z IAD PWAT above the
90th percentile), will be favorable for water-loaded updrafts which
could support strong downbursts capable of wind damage.=20

The greatest severe weather threat will likely be late this morning
into the early afternoon when storms remain more discrete as
meridional upper-level flow should support upscale growth with heavy
rain eventually becoming the greater hazard. A severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed by midday.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6jBTXIAmVBHcv9SKKQrLy_ZjsBBs_XNUxlPZXYR5cuQvQsQ5QtwHdUJkU55Zrh3-dRbFIsx75=
s2xHb40Wzk4kde1ItM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39907801 40857706 41307663 41807620 41937513 41807435
            40697438 39687511 38977592 38827658 38857723 39267775
            39907801=20


=3D =3D =3D
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