Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 12:06:56 ACUS01 KWNS 091206 SWODY1 SPC AC 091205 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.... ....SUMMARY... Strong storms may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts from the southern Great Plains Red River Valley through the lower Mississippi Valley today, with a risk for damaging wind gusts also accompanying scattered strong storms across the Mid Atlantic. ....Arklatex into Gulf Coast states... A fast-moving bowing MCS is tracking across southeast OK this morning. This system has a history of damaging wind gusts and hail across much of western/southern OK overnight. Radar trends suggest that activity is slowly weakening. However, at least isolated gusty/damaging winds are possible this morning as storms track into northeast TX, southern AR, and northern LA. See MCD #1471 for further short-term details. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a cold front sagging across AR/TN. This activity will spread southeastward across much of northern MS/AL and northwest GA through the evening hours with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Finally, multiple clusters of storms are may form this afternoon ahead of the remnant aforementioned MCS over parts of southern MS/AL into the FL panhandle. This will be in a region of hot/humid boundary-layer air and beneath 25-35 knot westerly mid-level winds. The strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ....Mid Atlantic Region... Morning water vapor/radar images show an area of showers and thunderstorms over WV. This is in association with a mid-level shortwave trough that will progress eastward across the Mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas today. While considerable cloud cover is expected to persist across the region, sufficient destabilization should occur to aid in thunderstorm intensification as storms move off the Blue Ridge by early afternoon. Activity will spread eastward into parts of eastern PA, eastern VA/MD, and NJ/DE through the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and westerly flow aloft to pose some risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through much of the afternoon. ...Hart/Leitman.. 07/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .