Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 11:43:38

AWUS01 KWNH 091143
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0672
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 AM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaTex to the Missisisppi River

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091145Z - 091545Z

SUMMARY...A robust MCS over eastern OK will continue to track east
this morning, posing a potential flash flood threat to parts of
northeast TX, southeast OK, and into portions of the Lower MS
Valley. Rainfall rates up to 3"/hr are possible in the most
intense storms or where training convection occurs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar showed
the MCS in OK remains relatively healthy, although some cloud tops
are beginning to warm slightly on recent IR scans. The MCS is
supported by 30-40 knots worth of effective bulk shear and RAP
forecasts suggest this shear will weaken but stick around as the
complex moves into AR. The highlighted region has generally 1,000
J/kg of MUCAPE and PWs that rise to 2" as the MCS moves into the
region. One factor that will help to keep the northern flank of
the MCS intact is steady southwesterly 850mb moisture transport
that is intersecting the front draped across northern AR for a
couple more hours. Eventually the 850mb moisture transport vectors
become oriented parallel to the front. While this should help to
reduce low level convergence beyond 14Z, this then firmly orients
the 850-300mb mean winds parallel to the front. The result is the
potential for training storms with hourly rainfall rates possibly
reaching as high as 3"/hr.

The MCS should gradually weaken over the next few hours as the
diurnally driven LLJ weakens and vertical wind shear lessens.
Until then, the flash flood threat will persist into central and
southern AR and could reach as far east as the Mississippi River
Areas most prone to possible flash flooding are the more urbanized
communities and poor drainage spots.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5qa61SQWAPmVp0k6VQAfi8BqwchbXdwyyxnIupaNJKBGuJLZr44n1q0Z6-gosFWWvyOj=
qKqT3EExbG66umGlXLW46VA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35739184 35579009 34918996 33949056 33019173=20
            32519274 32619431 33169507 34089494 34969411=20
            35449389 35679335=20

=3D =3D =3D
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