Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 11:34:51

ACUS11 KWNS 091134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091134=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast OK into north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

Valid 091134Z - 091300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong gusts to 40-60 mph and near 1 inch diameter hail
will be possible in the short term, with severe potential
diminishing with southeast extent.

DISCUSSION...The MCS moving east/southeast across southeast OK/north
TX as become less organized over the past hour or so. This is likely
due to a combination of convection moving away from the southerly
low-level jet to the west and into an area of weaker
instability/strong surface-based inhibition. Nevertheless, modest
MUCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will maintain
convection with southeast extent. Measured wind gusts have been
lower over the past hour, with max speeds generally around 45-55 mph
noted in regional surface observations. Severe potential is expected
to diminish with eastward extent over the next 1-2 hours, though
locally strong to severe gusts are still possible in the short term.
Additionally, a couple of instances of near 1 inch in diameter hail
may occur as well.

...Leitman.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4MtotCMFJgEAcKDlJXRiW5Lz06Sk9a6fUOEyrtyVOp1uTOkM6Fft8VnYTZE7AMNCuoopWYSBP=
FHYIc3gw9zYJR_Q8pQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35259589 35039471 34339443 33129474 32939583 32899706
            33069791 33439802 34109703 34779633 35209606 35259589=20


=3D =3D =3D
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