Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 08:26:52

ACUS48 KWNS 090826
SWOD48
SPC AC 090825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Global models exhibit reasonable large-scale agreement early in the
medium-range period, though differences expand with time --
primarily with respect to their handling of the persistent upper
vortex initially over the Hudson Bay vicinity.  As this low
evolves/oscillates around the Manitoba/Ontario vicinity during the
period, the differences amongst the models lead to differences with
respect to central and eastern U.S. troughing, and southwestern U.S.
ridging.

More specifically, these differences in the amplitude of the upper
pattern over the U.S. affect evolution of the primary surface
baroclinic zone moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. and
southward across the Midwest/Plains states.

With a belt of moderately strong northwesterly/westerly cyclonic
flow across this region, storms developing in the vicinity of the
frontal zone each day will be accompanied by at least some severe
potential locally.  However, given the differences in frontal
location/progression, narrowing down specific areas of concentrated
severe potential is not possible to do with any confidence/accuracy
at this time.  Therefore, no risk areas will be included in the Day
4-8 outlook at this time.

...Goss.. 07/09/2023

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