Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 06:03:19 ACUS02 KWNS 090603 SWODY2 SPC AC 090601 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms appears to be centered over portions of the central and southern Plains on Monday. ....Central CONUS... As a surface cold front shifts southward across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes area, and a lee trough makes some eastward progress across the High Plains, destabilization south/east of these two boundaries will occur through the afternoon. This will help support isolated thunderstorm development, with a few stronger storms evolving on account of ample shear supported by a belt of moderately strong northwesterly flow across the area. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. Greatest risk will likely evolve through late afternoon and into the evening across the central Plains and southward into the southern High Plains, as storms grow upscale locally into a few clusters. Here, severe risk will likely continue -- possibly into the overnight hours as a low-level jet strengthens, supporting continuation of convection through the period. ....The Southeast... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the Gulf Coast States/Southeast at the start of the period, potentially accompanied by local wind risk, as a mid-level disturbance embedded within broad cyclonic flow shifts eastward across the area. The ongoing precipitation and associated cloud cover will limit destabilization across portions of the downstream area, but nonetheless, some intensification of the convection will be possible as it spreads across southern Georgia/northern Florida and possibly portions of the coastal Carolinas through the afternoon. Marginally severe hail and the possibility of a few stronger wind gusts will likely exist until storms move offshore, and/or weaken into early evening. ....Southern New England vicinity... As mid-level short-wave troughing shifts northeastward into New England, daytime heating beneath a pocket of cool mid-level temperatures will lead to modest afternoon destabilization. As a result, development of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected, though convection should remain largely sub-severe due to limited instability. Still, with a belt of stronger (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies progged to reside over the southern New England vicinity during the day, on the southern fringe of the upper system, a few stronger storms may produce marginal hail/wind gusts, until convection begins diurnally weakening by early evening. ....Northern Intermountain region... As a mid-level short-wave trough shifts northeastward across the Pacific Northwest vicinity, cool air aloft in tandem with daytime heating will result in modest destabilization -- sufficient to support scattered afternoon convective development. While overall storm intensity will remain limited due to modest CAPE, 40 kt southwesterly mid-level flow will likely permit local storm organization -- with potential for damaging winds locally near stronger storms, into the evening hours. ...Goss.. 07/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .