Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1468
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 03:12:19

ACUS11 KWNS 090312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090311=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-090515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast Colorado...Southwest
Kansas...Oklahoma...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...

Valid 090311Z - 090515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will develop southeastward into the
northeastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma over the next
couple of hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary
threats. New weather watch issuance will likely be needed within the
hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1004 mb low over far
southern Colorado, with a quasi-stationary front extending
southeastward across the Texas Panhandle. To the northeast of the
front, winds are backed to the east-southeast. The airmass is very
most with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This is contributing to a
moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range according the RAP. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs at Amarillo
and Dodge City have 0-6 km shear of 40 to 45 knots with substantial
speed shear in the mid-levels. This environment will support severe
thunderstorm development late this evening into the early overnight
period. Supercells with large hail and wind damage will be possible.
The wind damage threat could increase if a bowing line segment can
become organized.

...Broyles.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7yIYLUzd3065BAZutKvjec2F0oU8pY6wnaNyQtHeTJ52361QFP-iewZI2T9H-znHbuuYo1k6Z=
nD0v8LcCwv_LUBT4gk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37019920 37610015 38000117 37990221 37840268 37410302
            36830274 35900177 35150102 35059999 35399924 36119880
            37019920=20


=3D =3D =3D
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