Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 00:51:21 ACUS01 KWNS 090051 SWODY1 SPC AC 090049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A couple of supercells may continue tracking southeastward across the remainder of southeastern Colorado into late evening, before storms gradually consolidate into an organizing cluster across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and progress into the Red River Valley vicinity overnight. ....01Z Update... Strongest thunderstorm development is becoming focused to the northeast/east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, as thunderstorms begin to propagate southeast of the Palmer Divide into seasonably moist air characterized by moderately large CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Beneath 40-50 kt west-northwesterly 500 mb flow, southeasterly near-surface winds are contributing to strong deep-layer shear more than sufficient for supercells. Strong storms may remain largely discrete into late evening while propagating southeastward across the remainder of southeastern Colorado. Thereafter, a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet will contribute to strengthening warm advection across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, where storms may consolidate into an upscale growing and organizing cluster. This may include intensifying rear inflow potentially supportive of damaging surface gusts. However, based on various model forecast soundings, the extent of this threat remains at least somewhat unclear, as it appears that activity will be overspreading a cooling low-level environment as it continues southeastward toward the Red River through daybreak. It is possible that weak to stable low-level lapse rates could mitigate the risk for severe wind gusts. ...Kerr.. 07/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .