Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 20:18:28

AWUS01 KWNH 082018
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0665
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Western KY...Central KY...Northern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082015Z - 090100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of slow moving heavy showers and
storms through the late afternoon and early evening hours may
result in hourly rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour for
some locations in west-central Kentucky and into much of central
and northern Tennessee.  Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible where cell training develops.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars along with recent infrared
satellite scans are depicting a steady increase in slow moving
convection that is generally south of a quasi-stationary front,
and ahead of a remnant MCV over northwest Arkansas from earlier
convection.  The overall environment is conducive for heavy
rainfall in the outlook area with PWs near 2 inches per recent SPC
mesoanalysis, and mixed layer CAPE generally on the order of
2000-3000 J/kg in response to low-mid 70s surface dewpoints and
steeper lapse rates aloft.  There is also some modest 300mb
divergence which is also helping to aid ascent across this region.

The latest CAM guidance suite is depicting the potential for
patchy 2-3 inch QPF maxima through 01Z tonight, with the majority
of this falling within a 90-minute time period for any given
location.  The highest rainfall rates are likely to be associated
with cell mergers where 1-2 inches may fall within a 30-minute
time period, and this could reach flash flood guidance values in a
few locations.=20

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8f4_zB9g0yaCkEUfVsNr7rqCL96an2Ts7e1vRdRh4mFEYK4loXOljkk_sr0GlPf1PEgG=
TLvegnVeBgnd8OPoRIHcOeI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37848645 37828573 37518508 36988442 36118402=20
            35618498 35508677 35318786 35168851 35208919=20
            35468968 35818976 36288957 36808905 37118862=20
            37388793 37648725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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