Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1464
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 20:14:47

ACUS11 KWNS 082014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082014=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...-Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and the
western OK/TX Panhandles.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 082014Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells expected through the afternoon with a
primary threat of large hail and some threat for damaging winds. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have started to
develop across the Front Range where 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE has
developed. SPC mesoanalysis shows convective inhibition remains
across the High Plains east of the Front Range and the lack of
cumulus in this area supports this idea. Therefore, storms may
struggle to maintain intensity once they move off of the higher
terrain. However, additional low-level moisture advection and
heating should further erode the cap and eventually allow for storms
to maintain intensity east of the mountains and perhaps allow
additional development.

Once storms can develop and become rooted, supercells are expected
given 45-55 knots of effective shear. Large hail, some very large,
will be the primary threat, but some severe wind gusts are possible,
especially later in the evening if upscale growth occurs. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed once rooted surface-based
storms become apparent.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87vm2lDOXX4nbRj5mgyQ9rCcUC5PwHivE0SJ9_s3lz-QGnJ4U-O5ooX37jPMWa7tiDdQhVhzs=
HZLsZYLcBKZ0D-dOzM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35800508 36830510 37940556 38710554 38780546 39030532
            39080433 38750276 38570214 37050162 36270132 35500163
            35130237 35200302 35800508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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