Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1462
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 18:24:15

ACUS11 KWNS 081824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081823=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and the
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081823Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next 1
to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A low-level cumulus field has started to expand across
northeast Colorado as temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates this warming is sufficient to erode convective inhibition
across most of this region. Some storms have developed over eastern
Wyoming, the Nebraska Panhandle, and the mountains west of Boulder.
After another hour of heating, expect isolated storm development
across the Plains. Given relatively weak storm-relative inflow
(20-25 knots) expect storms to be somewhat small, but with 45 to 50
knots of shear, expect them to be well-organized supercells with a
threat for large hail and potentially severe wind gusts.=20

The 16Z HRRR convective evolution seems logical with isolated
mini-supercells across the Plains and a more widespread storm
development across the Front Range and the Cheyenne Ridge eventually
congealing and moving southeast later this afternoon/evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely, but timing remains uncertain.
Expect a watch will eventually be needed, but if initial activity
remains isolated, it could be deferred until later this afternoon.=20

On the northern periphery, elevated storms have developed and will
drift south and may eventually transition to more surface-based.
These storms are north of the better low-level moisture/instability,
but could pose some severe weather threat.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_M6RDf1LlYLQNJ7ZucKBH8zqbZq1y3Eb2ASXPkzOgofdzuyrQCUEXTVutDJHYyvlQMXwl20zK=
VSfTO-ep3FGC1leue4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38640509 39150553 40150575 40960580 41990571 42760523
            42950434 42970372 42730323 41150221 39550207 38600367
            38640509=20


=3D =3D =3D
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