Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 17:39:26

AWUS01 KWNH 081739
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-SCZ000-082335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0664
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081735Z - 082335Z

SUMMARY...Slow to even stationary thunderstorms will likely
produces excessive rainfall rates this afternoon. Flash flooding
is possible, especially in poor drainage areas and urbanized
settings.

DISCUSSION...The air-mass across the southern Mid-Atlantic feels
like a tropical one with dew points in the mid 70s along and east
of I-95. Dew points are more in the upper 60s to low 70s range
west of I-95. RAP forecasts this afternoon depict anywhere from
1.5-2.0" with the higher values closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast.
There is very little in the way of vertical wind shear and not
much more than 10 knots worth of steering winds aloft. This mean
storms will be primarily in the form of pulse storms. Given the
lack of large scale forcing aloft, any additional storms will
develop as a result of strong surface based heating, bay/sea
breezes, and outflow boundaries emanating out of ongoing areas of
convection. 12Z HREF shows as much as 20-30% probabilities for
>2"/hr rainfall rates, which can cause flash flooding in urbanized
areas and poor drainage spots. Given the available moisture and
instability, hourly rainfall rates could top 2.5"/hr in the most
intense cells. Storms should gradually dissipate after 00Z with
the loss of daytime heating.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9vUtxWJJmlQZQ6kSpfqjH2-3vEAGK39Mpa9Mw2yLb06Bsz5iB5I-WobDjAn0KhhSYouI=
yLSqjvDXafOxHl7WRwT1HoY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39337656 39227587 37677566 36277583 35757602=20
            35307643 34887718 34257792 34257863 34877991=20
            35038078 35688074 36937978 37567918 38187768=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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