Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 17:27:46 ACUS02 KWNS 081727 SWODY2 SPC AC 081726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast from the Arklatex region across the Gulf Coast States, and across the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Isolated severe storms will be possible over the far northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge will develop over the Rockies while a large upper low develops over south-central Canada. Generally low heights aloft will exist over much of the East, with various disturbances moving around the base of this broad trough from the Arklatex across the Southeast and up the East Coast. At the surface, a weak front will extend from NC/VA northward across PA and NY, with a leading midlevel wave and around 35-40 500 mb winds. Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will maintain dewpoints generally in the 65-70 F range. This weak boundary will trail southwestward into the southern Plains, with 70s F dewpoints to the south aiding instability. Here, a disturbance associated with ongoing storms will enhance wind fields aloft from the Arklatex into parts of the central Gulf Coast States, with damaging wind gusts expected. Elsewhere, cool air aloft and cyclonic flow around the Canadian cyclone will affect parts of ND and northern MN, providing cool air aloft and steep lapse rates. ....OK/TX into the lower MS Valley... Models indicate a likely MCS will exist early in the day over OK, and will move east/southeastward across AR, LA, MS and western AL during the day. Given the very moist air mass and corridor of 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, areas of wind damage will remain possible as the system evolves, and/or new storms form on the existing outflow. Confidence is low with both timing and placement of the greatest risk corridor given the nature of these regimes, but statistically the best corridor appears to stretch from the Arklatex into central MS. ....Carolinas northward into southern New England... The uncapped, moist air mass combined with minimal heating will result in relatively early development of storms centered over VA, MD, eastern PA and NY. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as well as deep-layer mean winds over 30 kt should support a few clusters of damaging outflow winds. Isolated marginal hail appears most likely over northern areas where temperatures aloft will be cooler, and hodographs a bit more favorable with gradually increasing speeds aloft. ....ND/MN... Heating will result in a well-mixed boundary layer during the afternoon, while sufficient moisture contributes to 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE. Scattered storms may develop within the surface trough, with marginal hail or locally strong gusts possible. Storm mode may remain cellular despite the deep mixed layer as deep-layer shear increases to around 35 kt along with around 100 m2/s2 effective SRH. ...Jewell.. 07/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .