Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1461
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 15:25:14

ACUS11 KWNS 081525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081524=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma into the Arklatex and central
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081524Z - 081700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Current storms across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas could intensify which could necessitate a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have continued in the vicinity
of a remnant MCV across eastern Oklahoma in the wake of the
overnight MCS. Within the last hour, a longer duration thunderstorm
within this MCV has developed into a bowing segment across Scott
County, Arkansas with additional storms developing to the southwest.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates CINH has eroded downstream of this
activity with temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid
70s. Therefore, expect ongoing activity to persist through the
afternoon.=20

Overall, wind shear in the region is quite weak (20 to 25 knots per
RAP forecast soundings), but some increased mid-level westerly flow
in the vicinity of the MCV (35 to 50 knots per SRX and LZK VWP) may
aid in storm organization. If convective coverage/intensity
continues to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours, a severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!43tjodier-DVQ7U3XD4kZWNGvcU02OB1L1p95E7ijFYnY1nVJ4AnZtARNbfZ9Wrmt51clBoK8=
3o6A-_v5-FCY-uCxzg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33989543 34579479 35079398 34869212 33909155 33069208
            32709295 32529367 32689454 32899514 33629552 33989543=20


=3D =3D =3D
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