Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 07:41:44 ACUS03 KWNS 080741 SWODY3 SPC AC 080740 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION... ....SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms appears to be centered over the Plains on Monday. ....Plains States.. Afternoon destabilization is expected across much of the Plains region Monday afternoon, south of a cold front crossing the northern Plains, and east of a High-Plains lee trough. By afternoon, storm development is expected -- along the southward-moving front from the Upper Great Lakes westward to eastern Montana, and southward along the lee trough which is expected to shift slightly eastward across the High Plains with time. Given persistence of the moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft across central portions of the country, ample shear will exist for storms to become severe locally, with main risks expected to be locally damaging winds and hail. During the evening, storms will likely grow upscale and congeal into one or more convective clusters, moving southeastward across portions of the Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity through the evening and into the overnight hours, with some likelihood for continued severe risk. ....The Southeast... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Gulf Coast States vicinity, as a compact mid-level short-wave trough crosses the area. Uncertainty with respect to the location of this feature, and potential for downstream destabilization, is fairly substantial at this time. However, at least some risk for continuation of the convection across the Southeast through the afternoon and into the evening is apparent, and thus some conditional risk for damaging winds is evident. The risk area will likely require refinement in later updates as the evolution of the anticipated convective system becomes more apparent. ....The Northeast... As a mid-level short-wave trough crosses eastern New York and New England during the afternoon/evening hours, an associated cold front will likewise shift eastward across this region. Weak destabilization ahead of this system will support isolated, afternoon convective development. Though the lack of more substantial instability will likely remain a limiting factor, moderate flow aloft supports potential for a few stronger storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts locally. Storms will weaken into the evening hours. ....Interior Pacific Northwest into southwestern Montana... Modest afternoon destabilization is expected across parts of eastern Washington/northeastern Oregon across northern Idaho into southwestern Montana, as a short-wave trough shifts northeastward across the Pacific Northwest. Scattered to isolated, afternoon storm development is expected across this area, with peak convective activity lasting into mid evening before gradually diminishing. With 40 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear will be sufficient to support a few stronger storms, and associated potential for damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail. ...Goss.. 07/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .