Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 02:56:44 AWUS01 KWNH 080256 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080830- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0659 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1055 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Areas affected...High Plains of CO and KS through the TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080255Z - 080830Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary front will expand in coverage and move slowly east tonight. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely within this convection, which through training could produce 1-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows an expanding line of showers and thunderstorms blossoming along a stationary front near the Raton Mesa and Sangre de Cristos of Colorado. This convection is expanding in response to low-level convergence along the front as easterly flow impinges into the region from the Plains. This easterly flow is also transporting more robust thermodynamics westward with PWs reaching 1-1.25 inches within a ribbon of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. During the next several hours, convection should repeatedly develop along this boundary as the LLJ intensifies from the south to 20-30 kts, while the front itself begins to sag southward into the NM High Plains. This will result in more impressive isentropic upglide atop the boundary, fueling continued development along the elevated baroclinic gradient as robust thermodynamics are continually resupplied. The high-res guidance somewhat disagrees on how widespread and intense this activity will be, but recent runs of the HRRR, FV3, and CONEST all suggest at least scattered storms continuing into the overnight. Mean 0-6km winds will likely remain aligned to the front and from the west, so despite storm motions of 15-20 kts, parallel Corfidi vectors suggest an increased risk for training. With rain rates progged by the HREF to be 1-2"/hr, this training could produce 1-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts, especially where any backbuilding can occur into the greater instability. 14-day AHPS rainfall from southeast CO into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS has been around 300% of normal, leading to compromised FFG of 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for which the HREF exceedance probabilities reach 30-40% the next few hours. Additional heavy rain atop these saturated soils suggests an increased runoff and flash flood threat tonight, especially where training can cause repeated rounds of the heaviest rainfall rates. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6YXkIbPGXUou1HIzKODWGe-yTF5d3--kGldkY_DZ_Wgsfbi7_Zcfhv8BDgZ75KUfbQ3-= K1O3_F97bkzA2ifQ7amsTHA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38850330 38800273 38660194 38310088 37970012=20 37429978 36909994 36440037 36160125 36170211=20 36300298 36580374 36850433 36890443 37190494=20 37610520 38020521 38400517 38690499 38810455=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .