Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 08 2023 00:52:39

ACUS01 KWNS 080052
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to be
accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts while overspreading west
central Oklahoma this evening.  Stronger gusts may become more
sporadic across and east of the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma.

....01Z Update...
Although vertical shear is strong, the ongoing cluster of storms
spreading across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma
is embedded within rather modest deep-layer ambient westerly mean
flow on the order of 20 kt or less.  However, this convection is
still becoming a bit better organized, while beginning to propagate
along a baroclinic zone associated with a remnant outflow boundary
from earlier convection, enhanced by differential surface heating.
This boundary extends from northwestern Oklahoma into areas west
through south of Oklahoma City, and may continue to slowly shift
northward through central Oklahoma while weakening this evening.
However, the boundary, and east-southeasterly updraft inflow of
moist air characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg along it, may
provide support for some further intensification and organization,
mainly west of the Greater Oklahoma City area, before weakening
later this evening.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm intensities are either diminishing or
expected to generally begin to diminish shortly, with mostly waning
severe weather potential.

...Kerr.. 07/08/2023

$$

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