Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 23:38:12

AWUS01 KWNH 072338
FFGMPD
NCZ000-080236-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0658
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...a small part of east-central and central North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072336Z - 080236Z

Summary...Deep, slow-moving convection is producing local rain
rates of 1-2 inches/hr, and could cause spots of excessive runoff
over the next 2-3 hours.

Discussion...A remnant MCS has made steady, yet slow southeastward
progress across much of northeastern North Carolina this
afternoon.  Over the past hour or so, the southwestern flank of
this MCS has reignited with deep, slow-moving convection generally
along an axis from near/just south of RDU eastward to near EWN.=20
The storms are in a very moist/unstable environment, with 2500
J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2 inch PW values supporting very efficient
rainfall processes.  While local FFGs are generally in the 2.5-3
inch/hr range, flow aloft was weak and parallel to the low-level
boundary initiating the storms, suggesting that localized training
and persistence of cells could promote spots of FFG exceedence
over the next 1-2 hours.  The cells are moving only slowly to the
south and could merge with additional cells south of Fayetteville,
which would also prompting locally heavy rain rates.

The ongoing activity will likely be modulated by the diurnal
cycle, with slow weakening and eventual dissipation expected
overnight - perhaps after 05Z or so.  The peak of the flash flood
threat should exist over the next couple hours or so, before a
gradual lessening of the risk with time.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6vQuqVvpDgYLMpMXhboBWVoy7wC0WxlQBKJmp5VOT32ekL4T_IZIsyiKwzkzwCJzzS10=
rz7uNn6HU1GjlZNiUVLUGHI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35957912 35937746 35627627 34537605 34237868=20
            35097927=20

=3D =3D =3D
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