Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 23:24:38

ACUS11 KWNS 072324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072324=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma...Far Southern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 072324Z - 080130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop eastward into western
Oklahoma over the next hour. Wind damage and isolated large hail
will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be
needed across parts of western Oklahoma, and possibly northward into
far southern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently ongoing across the Texas
Panhandle. This line is located near a maximum in instability, where
the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 45
knots with some directional shear in the low-levels. This will
support a severe threat as the line continues to move eastward this
evening. The line of severe storms is expected to track along and
north of a quasi-stationary front extending east-southeastward
across western and south-central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts and
isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch
issuance will be needed across parts of western Oklahoma within the
hour. The watch could be needed in parts of far southern Kansas if
the line can develop slightly further to the north.

...Broyles.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ib1c6iMQgMghvycryl9OdH1hWGtCNqBFBUJI5FCy_gD222ORzBWVoQQ1AA4vTxco5j4UjX-S=
3_rX2S1S3wn8QlhkQE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35559845 36569821 37079848 37219897 37199991 37010024
            36680048 36440062 36060087 35230162 34620182 34200116
            34170025 34449945 34999880 35559845=20


=3D =3D =3D
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