Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 23:01:41 AWUS01 KWNH 072301 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0657 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 701 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Areas affected...southwestern Kansas, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and western Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 072300Z - 080500Z Summary...Scattered storms are continuing to grow upscale into a convective complex across the Texas Panhandle, with increasing chances for mergers/heavier rainfall occurring across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Flash flooding is possible in this regime. Discussion...Over the past couple hours, thunderstorms initially over eastern New Mexico have growing upscale and consolidated into a couple extensive linear segments from the north-central Texas Panhandle south-southwestward to near LLN and westward from there into southeastern New Mexico. The linear segments are forward propagating to the east fairly quickly - especially across the Texas Panhandle were storm motions of 30-40 knots were noted.=20 Despite the storm motions, areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates were noted in a few spots with this convection. The brief heavy rain may result in a few areas of ponding/runoff especially in low-lying or sensitive spots in the short term. Of somewhat greater concern is the recent development of convection across the Oklahoma Panhandle into far southwest Kansas. These storms are more cellular in nature and are slower moving. As they continue to evolve, they'll likely merge with the ongoing MCS and provide opportunity for heavier rain rates (perhaps 2-2.5 inches/hr). Additionally, the rain from these cells are falling on areas of wet soils from approximately 2-5 inches of rain that fell over the past couple weeks.=20 Additionally, FFG thresholds are in the 1-2 inch/hr range (locally lower), and these thresholds should be exceeded at times as storms mature. Additional development ahead of the MCS near the KS/OK border from I-35 westward also appears likely through 05Z. Given the aforementioned scenario, flash flooding appears possible across the discussion area, with somewhat higher potential expected near/north of U.S. 412 across northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!50a8pIVK-B3PKu75WihKZltdnt3UgxPeI3H5G0ZtjMnwU3w3p5OzWJkI9cVSaKDWCqux= 6WCQmmESmOosqsCo9VG5yIo$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37669748 36249689 34849708 34269929 34020135=20 34670246 36040255 37220186 37610063=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .