Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 22:35:13

AWUS01 KWNH 072235
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-080133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0656
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...southern Vermont through central Maine and a
small part of southeastern New York state

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072233Z - 080133Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should continue for at least a
couple more hours, but several factors suggest that the overall
risk should decline through 01Z or so...

Discussion...Scattered to numerous convective activity has
consolidated into an extensive, broken band of storms extending
from near EEN in southern Vermont northward to HUL in eastern
Maine.  While these storms were producing numerous areas of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates and extensive MRMS Flash responses/impacts
earlier, the focus of heavier rainfall has shifted in the short
term to eastern Maine and southern portions of New Hampshire and
Vermont.  In these areas, low to mid-80s F surface temperatures
were continuing to support moderate buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
while the overall background environment (1.5+ inch PW and weak
southwesterly flow aloft allowing for training) was continuing to
support locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.  1-2 inch/hr
FFG thresholds were being exceeded there as well (beneath heavier
thunderstorms).  These trends suggest a continued flash flood
threat in the near term.

Over the course of the evening, a few factors point to a gradually
diminishing flash flood threat, including: 1) continued convective
overturning, 2) low-level advection of cooler surface temperatures
from over ocean waters south of Maine, and 3) nocturnal boundary
layer cooling processes.  These processes may take some time to
unfold, however, especially given the local organization of the
linear and and established cold pool just to its immediate
northwest.  1-2 inch/hr rain rates should continue in spots
through at least 00Z or so, before becoming less common thereafter.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_akmL976vdcZiOp2nze5hwyO7ZlPdVEo-bRY3lMZ8ra_oOGM17nr3bq15c_n_w1hDE0A=
0wucA4BZDlE087bXww2vsQw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   46526837 46216689 45286727 43907043 42907184=20
            42007370 42097472 43257325 44037251 45737024=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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