Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1457
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 22:21:15

ACUS11 KWNS 072221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072220=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-080015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...West Texas...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 072220Z - 080015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across parts of west Texas
over the next couple of hours. Wind-damage and isolated large hail
will continue to be possible with the stronger storms. An isolated
severe threat will also be possible to the northwest of Lubbock
early this evening, where the severe thunderstorm watch has been
extended in area.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
trough moving through the central High Plains. The southern end of
the shortwave trough is located in northeast New Mexico, just to the
west of a maximum in instability where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE
in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The lift and instability will
continue to support thunderstorm development over the next few
hours. Two line segments are currently ongoing with one in the
northwest Texas Panhandle, and the other located about 70 statute
miles to the northwest of Lubbock. Some bowing structure is evident
in each of these lines. The MCS is moving to the east at around 40
knots. This should be favorable for wind damage along the leading
edge of the stronger parts of the line. The strong instability,
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will also
support an isolated large-hail threat.

...Broyles.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7iZUlgE-HIqAYMf3QPX95fbaW5ibdZRaofOa0pAiQrRN8fNtj8MzUkYNDK63BMnfhO4-01lsb=
h3sRx71GnavTXfPbfs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34030286 34750263 35860250 36250243 36600213 36700138
            36520073 35970035 34770052 33880115 33350186 33290266
            33700300 34030286=20


=3D =3D =3D
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