Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 21:19:41

AWUS01 KWNH 072119
FFGMPD
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-080117-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0655
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...eastern New York state, north-central and
northeastern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072117Z - 080117Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues, although a gradual wane
in heavy rain rates should occur over the next few hours.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.  Over the last 3-6 hours, areas of slow-moving and training
cells have resulted in spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates (exceeding
local FFG) and several areas of moderate to higher-end MRMS Flash
response especially across northeastern New York state.  The
discussion area remains east of a synoptic cold front extending
from near SLK to RME and UNV.  Although convective overturning has
resulting in weakening convection in far northeastern New York,
the approach of the cold front could reignite a few showers and
thunderstorms there.  Additionally, moderate instability
downstream of ongoing storms (around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) continues
to support continued deep convection and heavy rainfall in an
otherwise favorable environment (1.5+ inch PW values and flow
aloft leading to slow storm motions).  The ongoing flash flood
risk should continue for at least another 2-3 hours.  Thereafter,
stabilization due to a cooling boundary layer should result in
decreased convective coverage an intensity, with flash flooding
becoming less likely after 00Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8wIw19cxiTVI-2rRkHcjvCbUcBcahSFVPgF7q3p95dlM-MHyWWb-tM0jPGIXTNosRxWn=
8rZy98-jSMMtvfXZVjo5elg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44887425 44837334 43277386 41127532 40307657=20
            40747774 41807723 43097591=20

=3D =3D =3D
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