Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1456
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 19:13:35

ACUS11 KWNS 071913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071913=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern SD...southeastern ND...and
northern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071913Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic marginally severe hail, a few severe gusts, and a
landspout or two may occur this afternoon across northeastern South
Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. A
watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along a cold front across
northern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northern
Minnesota this afternoon. Ahead of the front is a modifying outflow
air mass from convection this morning, with temperatures in the mid
70s F and dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Along the front, an
environment exists with ample vertical vorticity and 150 J/kg of 0-3
km MLCAPE per mesoanalysis. This may yield a few landspout tornadoes
with initial isolated cells along the front. Additionally, some
marginally severe hail may occur. With time, expect cold pools to
congeal into a few loosely organized clusters with some potential
for damaging gusts. Storm longevity may be limited by stable
unmodified outflow air to the south.

...Supinie/Mosier.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7HMk2y1Eh-mLITKPTWvZM-TbaKS9ocNrYl0dGfkHnqW5fmYInppp5Jc1lRd24sIsqP8KU2V6X=
GaYnre2V7J3g5-jbqA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   46529884 47539636 47969486 48099391 47959268 47319274
            46529396 45789643 45339765 44509956 43880047 43630134
            43900192 44280211 44830213 45230204 45800166 46239994
            46529884=20


=3D =3D =3D
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