Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1454
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 18:11:09

ACUS11 KWNS 071811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071810=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-072015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...northern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071810Z - 072015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of wind damage are possible this afternoon
across parts of northern New England. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed along a surface trough across
northern New England, and deepening cumulus is apparent along the
ridge tops in central Vermont on visible satellite. Mesoanalysis,
short term RAP forecast profiles, and a 16Z sounding from Albany
show a relatively moist troposphere and moderately steep low-level
lapse rates. These factors along with relatively weak deep-layer
shear should allow for thunderstorms with wet downbursts producing
wind damage in the region, particularly where storms can cluster
together. Convective activity should wane with sunset later this
evening.

...Supinie/Mosier.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6SuAM4NkAyIYP2wyecgnWyWMsCS2Cb8SK248wlalnUdFUDgBwm3OgqNaLn-VtAsYeiQ-6fxln=
0u6F-heaJoUXtz7B0g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   43787135 43477186 43187234 43127280 43347363 43557399
            43927423 44247434 44557422 44927401 45067366 45067154
            45347111 46107021 46696991 46966952 47246913 47216870
            46986836 46596818 46096841 45666878 44936956 44556999
            44267043 43787135=20


=3D =3D =3D
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