Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 12:37:36

AWUS01 KWNH 071237
FFGMPD
TXZ000-071430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0651...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 AM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Corrected for Likely Tag

Areas affected...South Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071220Z - 071430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms producing up to 3"/hr rainfall rates for
another hour or two are likely to exacerbate ongoing flash
flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...A convergence boundary in south central TX continues
to ignite thunderstorms in an environment ripe for prolific
rainfall rates. While MUCAPE is gradually being exhausted, there
remains up to 1,000 J/kg available within an environment with >90%
RH values at both low-mid levels. PWATs are as high as 2.3" in
area averaged RAP soundings with warm cloud layers up to 15,500ft
in depth. Steady 850mb inflow off the Gulf will continue to help
fuel these storms until the instability exhaust itself, which
should be in a couple more hours. Still, portions of Duval and Jim
Wells counties have seen as much as 5-10" of rainfall from these
training thunderstorms and MRMS FLASH 3-hr ARI show totals between
10-30 year return periods. With soils in these areas now so
saturated and sensitive, any additional rainfall in the 2-3"/hr
range would further exacerbate the ongoing flash flooding. With
that said, additional flash flooding is likely over the next few
hours.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_JmS6SKWP0VY8YND7fhiagy9Z0VsKJVRVVokGucasP0IFemeh4pB9KkGiCDnv52QRWTZ=
dRD7lgTy5ldtNEMLFSgrJxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28279836 28209806 27839797 27519797 27319802=20
            27289831 27419849 27659864 28069857=20

=3D =3D =3D
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