Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1451
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 07:42:02

ACUS11 KWNS 070741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070741=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-070945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...extreme southeast CO...southwest KS...the OK/TX
Panhandles...and northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...

Valid 070741Z - 070945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind risk will shift southeast into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma over the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells from Baca County CO to Meade County KS
will continue to shift southeast toward the OK Panhandle/northwest
OK over the next hour. These storms are likely still capable of
producing large hail, potentially to near 2 inch diameter based on
MRMS MESH data. While this activity remains semi-discrete, there
have been signs of some organization into a cluster over the past
30-60 minutes. VWP data from KAMA indicates a southerly low-level
jet around 30-40 kt. This low-level jet, coupled with MUCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg, will aid in continued organization and intensity
over the next couple of hours. Most recent storm reports indicate
1.5 inch hail and gusts to 51 kt. If a more organized cluster/bow
can evolve over the next 1-2 hours, damaging wind potential may
increase across the OK/TX Panhandle/northwest OK vicinity.=20

Latest CAM guidance suggests a southeast surging cluster will
persist past the 11z expiration time for WW 457, and the overall
environment should support organized convection persisting toward
12z. Current tracking shows this activity reaching the edges of the
watch around 09-10z/4-5 am CDT in some areas. Depending on
convective trends, a local watch extension or a new downstream
severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary.

...Leitman.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9mQTPSQPYOVbNJjs2gkHkwURl_foKAveZM5OQ27Xf8_GdtriRJNcxJI3fyy3utvJy_g93CeA5=
_oi-p4C5W7KjzBYTOI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   35980181 36730238 37300242 37570228 37720181 37770060
            37359967 36849899 36309886 35849947 35650018 35710120
            35980181=20


=3D =3D =3D
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