Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 07:34:31 ACUS03 KWNS 070734 SWODY3 SPC AC 070733 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA ENCOMPASSING THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST STATES...AND VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast across the Gulf Coast States/East Coast States and vicinity on Sunday. Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Plains/High Plains. ....East Coast/Gulf Coast states, and vicinity... Fairly widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing across the Upper Ohio Valley area, and into portions of the Mid South/Southeast, at the start of the period. The convection, and associated cloud cover, will likely hinder/modulate destabilization in some areas. Still, as short-wave troughing, within the base of broader-scale eastern U.S. cyclonic flow, advances eastward and takes on a negative tilt with time, convective redevelopment/intensification is expected. Accompanying the short-wave trough, enhanced cyclonic flow through a deep tropospheric layer is forecast to expand in an arcing manner from the Plains, into the Mid-South/Southeast, and into/across the Atlantic Coast states. This broad zone of moderately strong deep-layer quasi-unidirectional flow suggests potential for fast-moving storms/storm clusters, and accompanying risk for damaging winds, and some hail. While diminishing somewhat diurnally, wind risk will likely continue locally into the overnight hours. ....High Plains into Oklahoma... With large-scale ridging forecast to expand northward across the Rockies, as short-wave troughing digs/amplifies into the Southeast U.S., convective development across the High Plains is expected to be more subdued/isolated than prior days. Storms which do develop, however, will occur within the persistently favorable kinematic environment, which suggests that the strongest storms will be accompanied by hail/wind risk. With fewer storms expected over the High Plains, lesser potential for upscale growth into an evening/overnight MCS moving into the Kansas/Oklahoma area is expected. However, limited severe risk may be ongoing early in the day with remnant storms, along with some potential for westward redevelopment along remnant outflow into the evening as a low-level jet and associated warm advection increase. The redeveloping storms may also pose some risk for hail/wind locally. ....Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley area... Modest destabilization is forecast during the afternoon, ahead of a cold front, that is forecast to shift southward across the north-central portion of the country. The leading edge of enhanced flow aloft, surrounding the deep upper cyclone moving slowly southward across Manitoba/western Ontario, is forecast to extend atop the frontal zone, providing ample shear for organized storms. While coverage is expected to be somewhat limited, stronger storms may be capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds, aided by what is expected to be a fairly deep mixed layer. Storms should diminish in intensity during the evening. ...Goss.. 07/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .