Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 06:06:33 ACUS02 KWNS 070606 SWODY2 SPC AC 070605 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION... ....SUMMARY... Severe weather risk appears most likely from the central High Plains area southeastward across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to the Lower Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley areas on Saturday. ....High Plains to Oklahoma... Convection is forecast to be ongoing across the Oklahoma vicinity at the start of the period, with local severe risk possibly lingering during the morning. As storms weaken with time, daytime heating/destabilization will support new storm development -- potentially near remnant outflows across the Oklahoma vicinity, and across the High Plains from eastern Wyoming southward to eastern New Mexico. With moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft persisting across the Rockies and into the Plains, atop low-level southeasterlies, storms evolving over the High Plains will likely become severe locally. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a tornado or two given likelihood for initial supercell mode. With time, storms should grow upscale, moving east-southeastward off the higher terrain as a southern Plains low-level jet strengthens through the evening. At this time, a corridor from eastern Colorado southeastward across southwestern Kansas and Oklahoma appears to be the most likely zone for an overnight convective/MCS track, with risk for damaging winds and hail potentially continuing into the overnight hours. ....Portion of the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys... Models are a bit more consistent as compared to 24 hours ago, with depiction of a weak surface low moving east of the Mississippi Valley. The low appears likely to shift across the Midwest, with a weak/trailing front extending westward across Missouri and southern Kansas during the afternoon. Near the low, and along and south of the weak front, a moist airmass will destabilize through peak heating, though ongoing convection/cloud cover at the start of the period is forecast to affect portions of the region into the afternoon. Where ample instability does develop, a few stronger storms are forecast to evolve through the afternoon, aided by enhanced (around 35 kt) mid-level westerlies spreading atop the area with time. As such, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger, eastward-moving storms/storm clusters, along with some hail potential. Greatest risk is expected from mid afternoon through early evening, with a gradual decrease in convection later in the evening. ...Goss.. 07/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .