Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1450
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 05:50:00

ACUS11 KWNS 070549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070549=20
NEZ000-WYZ000-070645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Areas affected...far east-central WY into western NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456...

Valid 070549Z - 070645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts and hail may persist another couple
of hours across WW 456 as storms move out of far east-central
Wyoming and across western Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving over extreme east-central
WY, along with another cluster over the northwest NE Panhandle will
continue to shift east/southeast the next few hours. Latest radar
trends have shown a gradual weakening trend in convection, though a
few stronger cores are still evident. While boundary-layer
inhibition has increased, region VWP data indicate favorable
vertical shear, and a modest southerly low-level jet, along with
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. This should be sufficient to sustain strong
convection for at least a couple more hours. This activity should
move on the fringes of steeper midlevel lapse rates, supporting a
continued risk for hail. The cooling boundary-layer will likely
limit severe gust potential, but a few strong gusts are still
possible. Given weakening instability and increasing inhibition with
eastward extent, a downstream watch is not anticipated.

...Leitman.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9zmBColIkNXFX9njx2wkHX7ncZZq0HqRZVKKYXcei2V5EjJDf5VCliJd4u8nVwymixfUurWDS=
BCpqz7cVqT-9lkHpt8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   42720314 42680160 41920082 41480085 41240170 41280262
            41450382 41760428 42130456 42660448 42720314=20


=3D =3D =3D
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