Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 05:44:29 ACUS01 KWNS 070544 SWODY1 SPC AC 070542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Hail and wind are the primary risks. A few strong gusts may also accompany storms across parts of the Northeast. ....Central/Southern Plains... Upper ridge is expected to remain anchored over the southwestern US through the day1 period. Several weak short-wave troughs will eject around the northern periphery of this feature across the Great Basin/central Rockies before turning southeast toward the lower/middle MS Valley region. One such feature is digging southeast across the central High Plains early this morning. Thunderstorms have been increasing across eastern CO/western KS and an MCS will likely mature over the next several hours. This complex of storms will propagate southeast into northern OK by the start of the period. While some risk for severe winds will be noted along the leading edge of this activity, the primary concern for severe will develop later in the day across the High Plains from eastern CO into the TX Panhandle. Early-day MCS will undoubtedly generate a substantial convective outflow which will modify the boundary layer across much of KS/northeast OK. As a result, strongest surface heating is expected across eastern NM-TX Panhandle-extreme western OK. Another region where boundary layer heating is expected to contribute to convective initiation is along the CO Front Range, aided in part by easterly low-level flow. Latest model guidance suggests convective temperatures will be breached across the southern High Plains by 21z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve over eastern NM, then spread/develop northeast along/near the early-day outflow-reinforced surface boundary that should be draped across the TX Panhandle into northwest OK. Forecast soundings across this region are adequately sheared for supercells. Strong buoyancy with steep lapse rates suggest very large hail is possible. Additionally, strong winds may also be noted, especially if organized clusters evolve with this activity. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen across OK during the evening and veer toward southwest MO/northwest AR by 06z. This should encourage upscale growth after sunset along a corridor of low-level warm advection. Isolated supercells should also develop off the higher terrain over CO then dig southeast during the evening. Large hail is the primary concern with these storms. ....Northeast... Modest southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across the Great Lakes into northern New England Friday ahead of a notable upper trough over the upper MS Valley/northwestern ON. Weak surface boundary should orient itself across western NY into southeast QC by 18z. Surface heating near this corridor should contribute to scattered convection. While deep-layer flow is not forecast to be that significant, a few robust storms could generate gusty winds with this diurnally enhanced activity. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 07/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .