Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1449
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 04:41:59

ACUS11 KWNS 070441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070441=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-070645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas and
adjacent portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 455...

Valid 070441Z - 070645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 455 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development will persist
into the 1-2 AM MDT time frame, with activity continuing to
gradually grow upscale and organize, accompanied by increasing risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...South-southeastward propagation of a lead supercell
(now south of Lamar) continues, along a remnant surface baroclinic
zone extending into the Texas Panhandle.  At the same time, vigorous
new thunderstorm development continues to increase to the north
through east-southeast of this cell, within a strengthening warm
advection regime which may be maximized around 700 mb.=20=20

Subsequent evolution into the overnight hours remains a bit unclear.
 However, latest model output indicates a gradual veering of
southeasterly through southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer
with time, as a low-amplitude wave slowly shifts east of the
Colorado Rockies.  As this occurs, unstable updraft inflow may be
maintained on the southern through southwestern flank of the
stronger convection, but activity may also begin to take on a bit
more of an easterly component via advection.=20=20

The stronger updraft inflow may also tend to become increasingly
rooted above the boundary layer, but a strengthening cold pool
associated with consolidating convection may contribute to
increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9hmn7_45Is7sbJJ2ikJrGB5bzVUpoyEcPQSzWifMWFIrZdUAwy36lSMwphvxqFaRH_aVQLtL1=
rfwPS7awqObDB2ycqo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38430233 37870084 36940135 36860284 37920359 38430233=20


=3D =3D =3D
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