Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1448
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 02:58:56

ACUS11 KWNS 070258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070258=20
KSZ000-COZ000-070500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and adjacent portions of
southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 455...

Valid 070258Z - 070500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 455 continues.

SUMMARY...An intense supercell, posing a continuing risk for large
hail, potential for a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts,
probably will be maintained across and south-southeast of the Lamar
CO vicinity through 10-11 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...While the deep-layer shear is strong, ambient westerly
mean flow appears a rather modest 20 kt, allowing for a rather
pronounced rightward (southward) deviate motion to the large ongoing
supercell approaching the Lamar vicinity.  In the presence of
modestly strengthening southeasterly flow around 850 mb mb (25-30
kt), this is contributing to strong southerly near-surface updraft
inflow, roughly aligned with a baroclinic zone earlier enhanced by
strong differential surface heating.  The boundary-layer along this
frontal zone, extending southeast of the Lamar area into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, remains characterized by moderately
large CAPE and likely to maintain intense convective development.=20
This may continue to include a well-defined supercell structure on
the southern/southwestern flank of an upscale growing cluster.

...Kerr.. 07/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7XBp7VenwpuP8rjX2zSQj36D7pRImbzRt5XBSeGmUPIZx0pBOJgyIZmWf-I-7jYirZLyHwSyc=
bIRTxGiAbfVHU3f130$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38540257 38480195 37450152 37140197 37180284 38220332
            38260263 38540257=20


=3D =3D =3D
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