Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 00:44:54

ACUS01 KWNS 070044
SWODY1
SPC AC 070043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A corridor of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over
eastern Colorado then track across western Kansas towards northwest
Oklahoma late tonight. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes remain
possible.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough
is embedded within stronger westerly flow over southwest
WY/northwest CO. This feature appears to be aiding scattered
convection along the WY/CO border region. Thunderstorms have
struggled at times east of the higher terrain but ample buoyancy and
easterly low-level flow persist across much of the High Plains from
southeast WY into eastern CO. While 00z sounding from DDC exhibited
capping around 2km, current thinking is convection may redevelop
later this evening across the CO High Plains in response to the
approaching short wave. If this occurs, strengthening LLJ from the
TX Panhandle into southwest KS would prove favorable for upscale
growth later tonight. One or more MCSs could evolve from this
activity which would propagate across western KS toward northwest
OK. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes remain possible.

...Darrow.. 07/07/2023

$$

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