Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 07 2023 00:09:53 AWUS01 KWNH 070009 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-070308- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0647 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 809 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Areas affected...northern Louisiana, northeastern Texas, central Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070008Z - 070308Z Summary...Numerous cell mergers and slow storm movement continues to pose a flash flood risk for the next 2-4 hours, although continued low-level stabilization should result in a gradual decrease in this risk over time. Discussion...Robust convective development continues across the discussion area as a number of cell mergers, slow storm movement, and outflow boundary collisions promote areas of 2+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rain rates have prompted areas of low to moderate MRMS Flash responses, which isn't surprising as heavier downpours have managed to materialize across areas of 2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds, leading to local exceedence. Recently, a dominant band of convection has materialized from near Longview, TX to south of Monroe, Louisiana. This band of storms has materialized due to the convergence of two mesoscale outflows - one emerging from Gulf convection that propagated northward across east Texas and another from widespread convective overturning that occurred across southern Arkansas. This band may not persist for longer than a couple hours as relatively stable air exists both north and south of the convective band. Nocturnal boundary layer cooling should also help to lessen convective intensity. Other, more loosely organized convection exists across east-central Louisiana and central/southern Mississippi. Again, these convective cores will produce locally heavy rain and potential runoff for another 2-3 hours, though nocturnal low-level cooling should also weaken storms in these areas. The ongoing flash flood risk is likely to persist across the discussion area through at least 02Z this evening. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8CXplXquzKexX67IsGlma6t7gqHMIMUMKw2wHSvagF4YEdA3zdTiGfJbgZJGO_ARSEni= 51Pe-1XzW2CZGTUeuBL4CrU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33129389 32939112 32358905 31438901 30989044=20 31289375 32409542 33079527=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .