Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 22:59:26

ACUS11 KWNS 062259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062259=20
COZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062259Z - 070100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development, initially including
isolated supercells posing a risk for large, damaging hail and
potential for tornadoes, appears possible as early as 6-8 PM MDT.=20
Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A surface low has been in the process of developing to
the east of Pueblo, where sustained 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure
falls have been occurring.  While insolation and downslope flow have
contributed to a deepening well-mixed boundary layer around La
Junta, an upslope component into the southern slopes of the Palmer
Divide is maintaining boundary-layer moisture.  This appears to be
contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Latest
objective analysis suggests that mid-level inhibition is becoming
increasingly negligible where stronger low-level convergence is
focused, roughly north of Lamar into the Limon vicinity.

Pronounced veering of winds with height, beneath 30-50+ kt flow in
the 500-300 mb layer across this region, is contributing to strong
deep-layer shear supportive of supercells if and when thunderstorm
development initiates.  This appears possible as early as 00-02Z,
and stronger convection may be accompanied by a risk for large,
damaging hail, and potential for tornadoes as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens further across southeastern Colorado.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_k2tuG8CYOM1FQR0ax3Oxvd_1fLk6Zbu7-VuNlNCiP91dAuPfNxKFI1Ig7_gAk_bz-vW-IVjd=
C0Lgc94ICywUK20T1Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39140434 38930262 38280221 38010261 38280324 38720454
            39140434=20


=3D =3D =3D
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