Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1444 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 19:54:25 ACUS11 KWNS 061954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061953=20 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-062200- Mesoscale Discussion 1444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Areas affected...northeastern WY and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20 Valid 061953Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and evening across northeastern WY. Multiple rounds of storms are possible, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats. Watch issuance is likely later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has yielded towering Cu along the Bighorn Mountains and Absaroka Range in northern WY. These updrafts have percolated for the last couple of hours as the boundary layer slowly destabilizes and a subtle wave -- evident in upper-level water-vapor imagery over ID -- approaches the region. Temperatures rising into the 70s F with dewpoints generally in the low-/mid-50s F reside to the east of developing convection, with slightly drier air present on the western edge of the area in the Big Horn Basin. This is contributing to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg across the area. Some inhibition remains, which should quickly erode in the next hour or two given continued surface heating. This expected environmental evolution should support steadily organizing updrafts in the next couple of hours. The shear profile will lengthen as the upper-level wave approaches, yielding bulk shear supportive of supercells. Hodographs will be rather straight, yielding some splitting structures as storms evolve through the afternoon and evening. Combined with this shear profile, steep lapse rates and relatively moist mid-levels will support a threat for significant hail and damaging winds with more mature supercells. An isolated tornado threat may also materialize around 00-03z if a discrete storm interacts with backing low-level flow as the boundary layer cools. Thereafter, some upscale growth is expected as storms move east into SD/NE, transitioning to more of a damaging wind and hail threat. ...Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ta40MUf-rupj3XRLUqmbtTN-haL3hY_UPU_MekHnR0Mf1tpm-NJQ5WGhMs4qMHvRpYxKiLFh= 1CuEDpAo6y0LjNL0_w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 42700580 43110682 43310752 43780819 44190832 44720822 45170795 45440707 45530554 45310457 44860362 44150328 43300332 42730384 42510488 42700580=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .