Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1443
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 19:37:52

ACUS11 KWNS 061937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061937=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...southeast Wyoming into north-central and northeast
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061937Z - 062130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will begin to develop and gradually increase in
coverage and intensity over the next several hours from southeast
Wyoming southward toward Denver Colorado. The hail threat is
forecast to increase over time, with very large damaging hail later
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show
a pocket of heating roughly from Denver northeastward with
temperatures well into the 70s F. Convergence is also maximized here
due to the local cyclone, and with the easterly upslope regime
extending north to the Laramie Mountains.

Dewpoints of 55-60 F combined with temperatures in the 70s result in
SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg, with steep lapse rates aloft. Impressive
mid to high level winds are also elongating hodographs, creating
very favorable shear profiles for long-lived hail storms.

Current expectation is for an isolated hail threat over the next
hour or two as cells form over the high terrain and interact with
pockets of strong instability/heated air. Eventually a more robust
supercell and damaging hail threat is anticipated as a large swath
of uncapped, strongly unstable air develops by later afternoon, with
threat persisting farther east toward KS by evening.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9YHl-fSldgH1KMXJ15SvpTUkNHWzIY3l1BgR_BzsljHSeFvy6RUeRuTh4WkUwziZOLa0GdIR0=
6jZsrsKp4QEtCX51Y0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41980573 42350562 42510568 42660585 42820574 42780538
            42580505 42130449 41690413 40760386 40660383 40280373
            39900383 39450421 39190462 39150487 39210503 39550543
            39790562 39990586 40070611 40270626 40570620 40740580
            40880551 41090535 41370543 41980573=20


=3D =3D =3D
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