Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 19:24:20

AWUS01 KWNH 061924
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-070022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0645
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, far
west-central Mississippi, and the Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061922Z - 070022Z

Summary...Slow-moving storms are resulting in spots of 2+ inch/hr
rain rates.  Localized, yet isolated flash flood potential will
exist with this activity.

Discussion...A west-to-east band of deep convection has
materialized from near DeQueen, AR to near Greenville, MS over the
past 1-2 hours.  These storms are collocated with an axis of
strong surface-based instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 2+ inch
PW values, contributing to both extreme rain rates beneath more
persistent convection and also a general focus of activity within
that general instability axis.  Flow aloft was weak, allowing for
slow eastward movement of cells along with several storm mergers.
MRMS-estimated rainfall rates were peaking at 2-2.5 inches per
hour at times, which have been approaching local FFG thresholds
that generally range from 2-3 inches/hr areawide.

Models/CAMs are persistent in a gradual southward
shift/propagation of the axis of greatest convective coverage over
the course of the afternoon.  The expectation is that spots of 2+
inch/hr rain rates will continue in this regime, with occasional,
isolated flash flooding occurring.  The greatest potential for
higher-end rain rates and localized flooding will exist where
mergers can help prolong rain rates.  Storms should also be mainly
diurnally driven, with weakening/lessening rain rates expected 1)
much closer to sunset and 2) where convective overturning has
stabilized the boundary layer.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8wTmVRIcLAZctbUeJOTA_BASqDsczf4JmOHMws8qS498sOg8f61HBnzzlF68zRgpV10S=
cqNsxcqefLEBMRYSUk4e7Bs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34649370 34349155 34059031 33238962 32538996=20
            31909111 31749371 32559485 34279474=20

=3D =3D =3D
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