Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1440
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 11:07:18

ACUS11 KWNS 061107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061106=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-061230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of west-central into southwestern OK and
western north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

Valid 061106Z - 061230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat persists. The
need for a downstream watch remains unclear, but an extension in
area to WW 451 has been made to address the short-term severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS now moving across west-central into
southwestern OK has produced mainly sub-severe wind gusts up to
around 50 mph over the past hour or so based on Mesonet and
ASOS/AWOS observations. Nearly all high-resolution guidance
available indicates this cluster will slowly weaken over the next
couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet diminishes.
Observations have yet to show this weakening trend, and up to 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear may still support
some threat for convective organization with the cluster for the
next hour or two. If the MCS can maintain its intensity, then an
isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts would continue into
more of southwestern OK and perhaps parts of western north TX. The
need for a downstream watch remains unclear given the eventual
weakening trend anticipated. But, a local extension in area to
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 has been made to address the continued
short-term severe threat.

...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5km4kxc2tuLzQVadDwjEHNTBAvoc6LKwIDDQM5W5yDzRPUkm5mb69U0GsgAP9Nxnul1889eP9=
ZLma6fdyaImcFa2iJU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35129995 35459961 35789924 35499803 34319759 33829793
            33969955 35129995=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.