Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 09:00:17

ACUS48 KWNS 060900
SWOD48
SPC AC 060858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Global models continue to exhibit reasonable large-scale pattern
agreement through most of the medium-range period.  With a deep
mid-level cyclone progged to remain across the Ontario vicinity
through the period, persistent cyclonic northwesterly/westerly flow
aloft is expected across the High Plains/Plains through Day 8.

This pattern also favors daily, southerly nocturnal low-level jet
development across the southern Plains.  Therefore, an overall
kinematic scenario favoring severe storm development over the High
Plains, and then upscale growth/MCS development with storms moving
into the Plains overnight, will likely be maintained through the
period.

Given this persistent pattern, and prevalence of convective
overturning/rain-cooled air existing each day across portions of the
region, narrowing down more focused/favored areas for severe
convection within the broader region remains difficult.  Therefore,
while an active period for severe weather appears likely to prevail
-- particularly across the Plains region, no outlook areas are being
included at this time due to areal predictability concerns.

...Goss.. 07/06/2023

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