Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 07:40:47

ACUS03 KWNS 060740
SWODY3
SPC AC 060739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk appears most likely from the central High Plains
area southeastward across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma Saturday.

....Central High Plains southeastward across parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma and into the Ozarks/Arkansas...
A rather complex forecast is evident, with several rounds of prior
convection expected to occur across the risk area.  This will affect
locations of low-level boundaries, and thus modulate areas where
subsequent storms will occur.

With that said, the general pattern will continue, with enhanced
east-southeasterly mid-level flow across the Plains and into the
Midwest/Mid South, providing ample shear for organized/potential
severe storms.

Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, from
Oklahoma to Arkansas/Missouri and possibly Illinois, with
redevelopment through the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes.
Meanwhile, new rounds of storms should develop over the central and
southern High Plains -- initially in an isolated manner, but then
growing upscale and moving southeastward into the Plains during the
evening/overnight.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary risks across this area.

....Indiana and Lower Michigan...
A rather uncertain scenario is evident across the Lower
Michigan/Indiana area, with the NAM developing a low northward into
lower Michigan during the day.  Ample destabilization is indicated
near the low, and along the trailing front, such that -- given the
available shear -- some severe threat would be possible.  However,
the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the surface low will remain farther
south, and thus minimal if any severe threat across this area.
Thus, will introduce very uncertain/conditional 5% probability as
far north as Lower Michigan, with adjustments perhaps needed in
later outlooks.

...Goss.. 07/06/2023

$$

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