Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1438
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 06:41:15

ACUS11 KWNS 060641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060640=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southwestern KS into the OK/TX
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

Valid 060640Z - 060815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will
likely continue this morning as thunderstorms move southeastward.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell moving from Baca County in
southeastern CO into Cimarron County OK recently produced a measured
gust to 71 kt (82 mph) at KSPD. Downstream, convection along the
OK/KS line is beginning to show some signs of clustering/upscale
growth as it begins to overlap with the nose of a 30-35 kt
south-southeasterly low-level jet present over the TX Panhandle.
High-resolution guidance, including the latest run of the HRRR,
continue to struggle with convective placement and evolution across
this region over the next few hours. Current expectation is that
thunderstorms will probably grow upscale into one or more small
bowing clusters as they move southeastward across far southwestern
KS, the OK Panhandle, and the northern TX Panhandle. Severe/damaging
winds would likely remain the primary threat with this mainly linear
convection, although some large hail could occur with any supercell
that can remain at least semi-discrete. A fairly favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream suggests that
this severe wind/hail will likely persist for at least a few more
hours this morning across parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Gleason.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7axhL951W82BjZfBqHihbEFozAbUuC7KahTsrWPBf-KWcPqdqkkliqz0W6glC0Ylw0cEZW2vc=
_Dx-Vzzr8NYe1iBPH4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36920271 36150261 35670213 35590113 35760022 36520000
            37030022 37140128 36940204 36920271=20


=3D =3D =3D
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