Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1437
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 06 2023 05:47:44

ACUS11 KWNS 060547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060547=20
TXZ000-060715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060547Z - 060715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe winds may persist as thunderstorms
spread southeastward. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster is ongoing across parts of the western
TX Panhandle. A recent measured severe gust up to 78 mph was
recorded at a West TX Mesonet site in Parmer County TX with this
activity. Some threat for severe/damaging should continue in the
short term as these thunderstorms spread southeastward towards and
north of Lubbock. A 25-35 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet may
aid in thunderstorm maintenance by providing a continued source of
lift and warm/moist advection. A fairly favorable thermodynamic
environment is present downstream, with around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
available. Recent radar reflectivity data also show an outflow
boundary moving southwestward in advance of the cluster. This
boundary's interaction and impact with the ongoing thunderstorms
remains unclear. But, there is some chance it may act to undercut
and weaken new updrafts on the northern flank. Regardless, trends
are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6nQft3fLHxR_MqBtEuIWP380Ml_Ekih2GfDxJ-Y2DyzAtLw4N7crs06BThOfetkFtpzShq4AF=
l89plQX0w6aJS9rBLE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON   34340268 34690199 34510016 33620042 33420203 34340268=20


=3D =3D =3D
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